Bubble
The window to regulate may have closed.
Trump's SEC Overhaul Looms — Crypto Advocates Eye Gensler's Replacement
Hester “Crypto Mom” Pierce is a frontrunner for Gensler’s job, though she is said to favor returning to the private sector.
‘A leadership change at the SEC is seen by many in the cryptocurrency industry as a chance to pivot toward a regulatory framework more supportive of crypto. Commissioner Hester Peirce, a known critic of Gensler’s enforcement-driven approach, is viewed by numerous industry members as a favorable choice. Recognized for advocating regulatory clarity over punitive actions, Peirce has long supported a transparent framework that fosters crypto innovation. Her industry supporters, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have praised her balanced approach. Armstrong wrote on Friday on social media platform X:’
What the Student Debt Litigation Portends
The federal government’s administration of student debt repayment may have become so unwieldy that it is possible the Education Department could stop servicing the debt, a move that would be tantamount to massive debt forgiveness.
‘The Supreme Court will eventually have a chance to resolve the three cases working their way through federal courts. The conservative justices face a conundrum: partisan political priorities dictate a decision adverse to the Biden Administration. But the complexity of unraveling borrower repayment plans — especially if the conservative supermajority determines that multiple repayment plans, not just the newest one, lack statutory authority — could conceivably prompt the Education Department to extend its payment pause indefinitely on the grounds that aid programs have become impossible to administer. Presumably someone, maybe anyone, could then file a lawsuit to compel the Department to collect loan payments, but that lawsuit would have to identify the statutory basis for borrowers’ repayment obligation, and Chief Justice Roberts in Biden v. Nebraska wrote that “[n]o specific provision of the [Higher] Education Act establishes an obligation on the part of student borrowers to pay back the government.” That sounds pretty conclusive.’
Germany’s de-industrialization is prompting a reckoning, including on regulation. Companies are shifting investments abroad for many reasons, including the massive regulatory burden.
‘And then there’s regulation:
‘Regulations impacting German businesses encompass some 50,000 pages, compared with 34,000 a decade ago, despite multiple rounds of legislation aimed at reducing the burden. A recent survey of more than 1,700 companies by the Ifo economic institute revealed that almost half had postponed projects at home in the last two years because of such issues.’
Princeton, regulate your regulations
Protesters at Princeton don’t like regulatory uncertainty.
‘Above all, Princeton has a commitment to free and open inquiry and our freedom of expression. But in order to create such spaces, the University needs to hold itself accountable and give us the information to hold them accountable as well. By codifying a version of the three-prong test, perhaps starting by specifically codifying their professed “content-neutral” guideline in RRR, Princeton could begin taking steps in improving their accountability over the years to come. But as it stands, Princeton’s simultaneously extensive, vague, arbitrary, and inconsistent policy will only continue to limit and restrict our freedoms of expression without explanation.’
Supreme Court’s Chevron Reversal: A Seismic Shift for Health Care Regulation
Some histrionics at Penn Law where experts descry the fact that Loper has taken away some of their power.
Here, they take the rote position: not deferring to experts means not listening to them, but instead using a “dictionary” to interpret rules.
That’s not going to be what will happen. It hasn’t happened since. Courts still listen to experts, but now courts rule.
For the most part, we’ll likely find that the courts side with the experts, just not automatically and not all the time.
Lighten up.
‘Hoffman, who is an expert in the field of health care law, noted that just for Medicare there are thousands of final rules issued annually. “And each one of these are something that an interested party might go after,” she said. “This includes things like Medicare payment rules and Affordable Care Act (ACA) regulations which were already being challenged, like section 1557 which deals with a prohibition against discrimination on the basis of sex. What does it mean to discriminate on the basis of sex? And it also applies to health programs and activities receiving federal assistance. An agency might have interpreted that more narrowly or more broadly. It includes fraud and abuse rules, privacy rules, rules about technology, labor rules, rules about drugs and devices, and so on.”
‘“The looking backward at how Chevron was used might not be all that telling of what’s to come,” said Hoffman. “We’re going to see a destabilization of regulation invited in by Loper Bright—and its administrative state dismantling brethren like Corner Post and Jarkesy and Ohio v. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)—at a scale that we don’t yet know. And there are more layers coming. And so, what does that mean for health care?”’
Biden White House Releases Newest Regulatory Cost-Benefit Report
If these estimates of costs of new rules are true, then we are about to have a bonanza of stimulus when they are reversed.
‘A lot happened in fiscal year 2024, and the administration should release its fiscal year 2024 edition before the Trump administration arrives in January (unfortunately, inter-administration lapses have occurred before and might again). As for what we might garner about 2024 regulatory costs, the American Action Forum’s total-cost (again, not annualized) compilation of 331 rules from agencies’ regulatory impact analyses for calendar year 2024 reaches an eye-popping $1.3 trillion. This implies new annualized costs in the tens of billions that OMB should acknowledge.’
What the Trump win means for AI policy and regulation
Do you want biased AI models?
Does anyone?
‘This year, a study published in peer-reviewed journal PLOS One found that the large language models (LLMs) powering GenAI models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude chatbots generally produce responses that lean toward left-of-center political views.
‘Why does that matter? Well, Trump might prioritize legislation focusing on transparency in model fine-tuning and training, Shimmin noted. “You might find some legislation that would require model makers to prove that the way that they are pretraining and fine tuning and aligning their models are not leaning toward a specific bias,” he said.’
One of the perplexing things, for me at least, was the low fiscal multiplier given the tidal wave of money the federal government unleashed.
One reason may be the sheer scale of regulatory costs they imposed at the same time.
It was like standing on the brake and the accelerator of the car at the same time, watching the burnt rubber smoke around you as you spun around in an accelerating circle.
The irony will be if the full effect of Biden’s stimulus is felt under Trump as he reverses this regulatory onslaught.
‘The Biden administration’s regulatory burden far exceeded even the Obama administration’s. According to Dan Goldbeck of the American Action Forum, at this point in Obama’s first term, final rules imposed by his administration had cost $490 billion. Final rules imposed under Biden so far have cost $1.7 trillion.’
FEMA Fires Worker Who Directed Relief Workers to Skip Homes of Trump-Supporting Hurricane Survivors
She got caught.
‘A Federal Emergency Management Agency worker has been fired after she directed workers helping hurricane survivors not to go to homes with yard signs supporting President-elect Donald Trump, the agency’s leader said in a statement Saturday.’