Bluebottles
When it comes to predicting the way future technology plays out, to borrow from William Goldsmith, "nobody knows a goddamned thing."
AI: What AI’s Aspiring Regulators Really Want
We intend to write about Cochrane’s missive at some point, but there is a key principle of regulation of innovation: nobody ever knows how innovation or scientific discovery will manifest itself once it is introduced, so we should not regulate it until we have some experience of it. Call it Cochrane’s Law. Anything else leads to “over-regulation” and the consequent stunting of progress.
‘An article written by economist John Cochrane is a good antidote to any gloom generated by reading about the U.N.’s efforts in this area. Cochrane’s paper, entitled AI, Society, and Democracy: Just Relax, is a calm counterpoint to the regulators, wannabe regulators, “stakeholders,” rentseekers, and hysterics drawn to AI, to borrow Orwell’s memorable phrase, like “bluebottles to a dead cat.” Their motives vary but include greed (consultants, lawyers, and the like), quasi-superstitious dread (Frankenstein and all that), and the pursuit of power, with the latter, as so often, dressed up in collectivist clothing.’
‘The Power Broker’ Is Magisterial. It Is Also Flawed.
I am excited by the recent focus on Robert Caro with the fiftieth anniversary of his book on Robert Moses, The Power Broker. The New York Historical Society’s exhibit promises to be wonderful. I tried unsuccessfully to attend his talk there, but it was oversubscribed immediately, so I’m in the spillover room online.
His empathy-rich depiction of Moses’ impact on the City of New York and its denizens paints a vivid picture of oppressive, maniacal, unaccountable bureaucratic power. One might think that despising Moses would be a pre-condition for being a politically correct New Yorker. As a Canadian New Yorker, I am also a big fan of Jane Jacobs. Coincidentally, I went to high school blocks from where she settled in Toronto in 1968 for the rest of her life.
So, I was taken aback to read a piece in the New York Times in which Caro is criticized, essentially, as tendentious in his narrative, leading to readers to become skeptical of government in a way that hinders our contemporary progress.
Give me a break. I’m old enough to remember when the cool kids were skeptical of government. That was a long bloody time ago. Now, they’re all on the bus, scooping up Greentech subsidies and the like.
Maybe the argument is that you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet. It reminds me of the old joke. When making a ham omelet, what’s the difference between the chicken and the pig? The chicken’s involved but the pig is committed.
We haven’t “overlearned” the lesson. The central lesson is that the bureaucrat will discount the interests of those who get in his way. He will be like the Terminator, unrelenting and single-minded in the pursuit of his objective, with no cares at all about destroying every obstacle he encounters. In many cases, we’ll be left with the bureaucrat’s sub-optimal choices.
‘But I have come to believe, with a half-century of hindsight, that Mr. Caro did not get the story of Robert Moses completely right. Today, in the popular imagination, Mr. Moses is understood as an imperious, even racist villain who despised the poor, immolated outer borough neighborhoods and singularly worshiped the automobile. He is a perpetual warning against the consolidation of power, bureaucratic overreach and heedless development; he was, in the aftermath of “The Power Broker,” understood as a catalyst of New York’s deterioration in the 1970s.
‘Some readers have misunderstood Mr. Caro’s journalism. Others have overlearned the lessons of the “The Power Broker” and absorbed to too great a degree Mr. Caro’s framing of a deeply complex, unsettling and extraordinarily accomplished historical figure. By overlearning, they have lost faith in government and failed to comprehend that some of the Moses spirit must be recaptured today if the United States is going to be a great builder again.’
Gov. Newsom vetoes California’s controversial AI bill, SB 1047
Newsom vetoed the bill because it was insufficient. Please tell us more about the real threats posed by the technology.
‘In a statement about today’s veto, Newsom said, “While well-intentioned, SB 1047 does not take into account whether an AI system is deployed in high-risk environments, involves critical decision-making or the use of sensitive data. Instead, the bill applies stringent standards to even the most basic functions — so long as a large system deploys it. I do not believe this is the best approach to protecting the public from real threats posed by the technology.”’
Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoes AI safety bill opposed by Silicon Valley
It’s interesting. Many of the most exciting models such as GPT-4o are focused on shrinking. It sounds like Newsom realized this.
‘In his veto message, Newsom said the legislation could give the public a “false sense of security about controlling this fast-moving technology” because it targeted only large-scale and expensive AI models and not smaller, specialized systems.
‘“While well-intentioned, SB 1047 does not take into account whether an AI system is deployed in high-risk environments, involves critical decision-making or the use of sensitive data,” Newsom’s veto message stated. “Instead, the bill applies stringent standards to even the most basic functions — so long as a large system deploys it. I do not believe this is the best approach to protecting the public from real threats posed by the technology.”’
It’s going to be tough being an undocumented chicken going forward in Britain.
‘On the 1st of October all chickens in Britain must be registered with the state by law. It will be a criminal offence to keep unregistered chickens. Soviet Britain.’
California’s Plastic-Bag Ban Was Only the Beginning
Apparently, plastic recycling is not a thing. California AG is suing Exxon Mobil because they knew this but still promoted the practice. But did they?
‘Mr. Bonta garnered headlines last week by suing Exxon Mobil in what amounts to a declaration of war on the U.S. plastics and petrochemical industries, along with the tens of thousands of workers they employ in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
‘“For decades, Exxon Mobil has been deceiving the public to convince us that plastic recycling could solve the plastic waste and pollution crisis when they clearly knew this wasn’t possible,” Mr. Bonta declared. His lawsuit accuses the company of creating a “public nuisance” by producing plastics from oil and gas feedstock.’
Welcome Home, Hostages, and Pay Up
The rules are the rules, sir.
‘Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian was held by Iran for 544 days in 2014-16. When he was freed, the Internal Revenue Service expected him to pay back taxes with interest and levied late penalties totaling thousands of dollars, despite knowing he was unjustly detained overseas. IRS agents said they didn’t have the legal authority to remove the charges.’
Xi Has Finally Realized What’s Ailing China
Chinese local governments used to reap windfalls by selling land in a rising price environment. As Austin Powers would say, “that train has sailed.”
So, now they are levying huge fines for any type of violation.
‘China is experiencing what Nomura Securities’ economist Lu Ting calls a “second wave of shocks.” In the past, local governments played a helping hand by promoting regional growth and luring businesses to relocate to their jurisdictions. But with the property downturn and dwindling revenue from land sales, they have become an impediment to society. They’ve been imposing exorbitant fines on things like traffic violations in order to make their own ends meet.
‘In the first eight months of the year, non-tax revenue grew by 11.7%, while land sales tumbled by 25.4%. How can people have any confidence in the government if their first point of contact — often low-level civil servants — are arbitrary and unreasonable in their fee collections?’
High Minimum Fines in China Undermine Administrative Discretion
On the inequality of fines in China.
‘The Chinese government fined a small grocery store in Yulin, Shanxi Province a staggering $9,600 for selling three-dollar stalks of celery that failed to meet quality standards. This example is one of many instances in which the Chinese government has fined small businesses for minor infractions.
‘One reason for these high fines in China stems from statutory minimum penalties for regulatory violations. These penalties can be so substantial that they have, counterintuitively, deterred administrative agencies from applying available exemptions for minor violations. Consequently, minor violations receive the same high minimum fines as more serious violations, leading to unfair enforcement outcomes.
‘In China, as elsewhere, administrative agencies regularly impose fines to enforce compliance with regulations. According to Gary S. Becker’s economic model, setting fines demands that regulated entities take into account the marginal benefits and costs of violations, including the likelihood of detection and conviction. Regulators, however, often struggle to translate these same considerations into reasonably sized fine amounts.’